← earlier
+26 pointsElections and Transfers of Power
The election was administered competitively and produced a lawful change in governing power.
Historical review · Sources available
2024 review
Election Period
The 2024 election was competitive and its results produced an orderly transfer, against a background of polarization and institutional stress.
Constitutional health64/100
Clock reading8:10 PM
StatusElevated Constitutional Stress
What 8:10 PM means: A competitive election and completed succession pull the clock earlier, while institutional distrust and constitutional disputes remain.
What moved the clock
What changed from the previous review?
Compared with 2021 (January 6), the weighted score moved 17 points healthier.
← earlier
+40 pointsPeaceful Politics
Election administration and succession proceeded without organized violence comparable to January 6.
← earlier
+26 pointsTrust in Institutions
Acceptance of procedure improved from the 2020–21 crisis, but broad distrust remained.
← earlier
+17 pointsLimits on Government Power
Contested views of executive authority and legal accountability continued to create strain.
Eight measures
How the score breaks down
The same weights are used for every period. You can question any measure on its own.
0115% of total
Limits on Government Power
Contested views of executive authority and legal accountability continued to create strain.
62/ 100
↑ 17 since the previous reviewAdds 9.3 points to the total · ↑ 17 since the previous review
Why this score?
Why it was scored this way. Contested views of executive authority and legal accountability continued to create strain.
Confidence. Historical facts: Moderate–high; numerical score: Moderate. See the full review and sources below.
0212.5% of total
Checks and Balances
Could Congress, the president, and the courts still check one another?
62/ 100
↑ 7 since the previous reviewAdds 7.75 points to the total · ↑ 7 since the previous review
Why this score?
Why it was scored this way. Could Congress, the president, and the courts still check one another?
Confidence. Historical facts: Moderate–high; numerical score: Moderate. See the full review and sources below.
0315% of total
Elections and Transfers of Power
The election was administered competitively and produced a lawful change in governing power.
78/ 100
↑ 26 since the previous reviewAdds 11.7 points to the total · ↑ 26 since the previous review
Why this score?
Why it was scored this way. The election was administered competitively and produced a lawful change in governing power.
Confidence. Historical facts: Moderate–high; numerical score: Moderate. See the full review and sources below.
0415% of total
Rule of Law
Did the law apply through stable courts and institutions instead of personal or arbitrary power?
62/ 100
↑ 12 since the previous reviewAdds 9.3 points to the total · ↑ 12 since the previous review
Why this score?
Why it was scored this way. Did the law apply through stable courts and institutions instead of personal or arbitrary power?
Confidence. Historical facts: Moderate–high; numerical score: Moderate. See the full review and sources below.
0515% of total
Individual Rights
Were speech, belief, association, equality, and due process protected in real life?
68/ 100
↑ 10 since the previous reviewAdds 10.2 points to the total · ↑ 10 since the previous review
Why this score?
Why it was scored this way. Were speech, belief, association, equality, and due process protected in real life?
Confidence. Historical facts: Moderate–high; numerical score: Moderate. See the full review and sources below.
0610% of total
Federal and State Balance
Did federal and state governments keep meaningful authority within their roles?
65/ 100
↑ 7 since the previous reviewAdds 6.5 points to the total · ↑ 7 since the previous review
Why this score?
Why it was scored this way. Did federal and state governments keep meaningful authority within their roles?
Confidence. Historical facts: Moderate–high; numerical score: Moderate. See the full review and sources below.
077.5% of total
Trust in Institutions
Acceptance of procedure improved from the 2020–21 crisis, but broad distrust remained.
48/ 100
↑ 26 since the previous reviewAdds 3.6 points to the total · ↑ 26 since the previous review
Why this score?
Why it was scored this way. Acceptance of procedure improved from the 2020–21 crisis, but broad distrust remained.
Confidence. Historical facts: Moderate–high; numerical score: Moderate. See the full review and sources below.
0810% of total
Peaceful Politics
Election administration and succession proceeded without organized violence comparable to January 6.
60/ 100
↑ 40 since the previous reviewAdds 6.0 points to the total · ↑ 40 since the previous review
Why this score?
Why it was scored this way. Election administration and succession proceeded without organized violence comparable to January 6.
Confidence. Historical facts: Moderate–high; numerical score: Moderate. See the full review and sources below.
Different questions
The clock does not predict major change or civil conflict
A different question
Major change to the system
Could the country's basic governing rules change? This is different from armed conflict.
This needs its own scoring guide. The clock score cannot answer it.
A different question
Organized political violence
Could political violence become organized and sustained? The clock is not a prediction of civil war.
This needs its own scoring guide. The clock score cannot answer it.
Why this matters
Why this moment matters
The assessment credits procedure and peaceful reversibility without rewarding or penalizing the winning coalition's ideology.
Similar moments in history
Evidence review
Election administration and presidential transition · 2024–January 2025
- Evidence confidence
- Moderate–high
- Score confidence
- Moderate
Election results and the transfer of power can be observed directly. A complete review still needs a clear cutoff date and confirmation from more than one annual index.
Findings
- The election was competitive and produced certified results and a completed presidential transition.
- The transfer proceeded without a repeat of organized violence at the certification stage.
- Long-running distrust and disputes about legal accountability continued despite procedural continuity.
Evidence pointing the other way
The score credits lawful reversibility and peaceful succession without rewarding the winning coalition's policies or ideology.
Check the sources
Sources
These links support the facts used here. Their publishers did not create or approve the score.