→ midnight
-30 pointsIndividual Rights
Retreat from federal protection left Black civil rights exposed to segregation and coercion.
Historical review · Sources available
1877 review
End of Reconstruction
The end of federal Reconstruction was followed by widespread suppression of civil and political rights despite constitutional guarantees.
Constitutional health37/100
Clock reading9:45 PM
StatusHigh Constitutional Stress
What 9:45 PM means: Federal retreat allows constitutional guarantees to be defeated in practice, moving the clock later.
What moved the clock
What changed from the previous review?
Compared with 1870 (Reconstruction), the weighted score moved 19 points less healthy.
→ midnight
-20 pointsElections and Transfers of Power
Violence and suppression hollowed out formal voting guarantees.
→ midnight
-23 pointsRule of Law
Constitutional rights became difficult to enforce against local and state power.
→ midnight
-15 pointsTrust in Institutions
Failure to honor the Reconstruction settlement weakened the credibility of constitutional promises.
Eight measures
How the score breaks down
The same weights are used for every period. You can question any measure on its own.
0115% of total
Limits on Government Power
Could the Constitution still place real limits on government power?
45/ 100
↓ 20 since the previous reviewAdds 6.75 points to the total · ↓ 20 since the previous review
Why this score?
Why it was scored this way. Could the Constitution still place real limits on government power?
Confidence. Historical facts: High; numerical score: Moderate. See the full review and sources below.
0212.5% of total
Checks and Balances
Could Congress, the president, and the courts still check one another?
48/ 100
↓ 12 since the previous reviewAdds 6.0 points to the total · ↓ 12 since the previous review
Why this score?
Why it was scored this way. Could Congress, the president, and the courts still check one another?
Confidence. Historical facts: High; numerical score: Moderate. See the full review and sources below.
0315% of total
Elections and Transfers of Power
Violence and suppression hollowed out formal voting guarantees.
35/ 100
↓ 20 since the previous reviewAdds 5.25 points to the total · ↓ 20 since the previous review
Why this score?
Why it was scored this way. Violence and suppression hollowed out formal voting guarantees.
Confidence. Historical facts: High; numerical score: Moderate. See the full review and sources below.
0415% of total
Rule of Law
Constitutional rights became difficult to enforce against local and state power.
35/ 100
↓ 23 since the previous reviewAdds 5.25 points to the total · ↓ 23 since the previous review
Why this score?
Why it was scored this way. Constitutional rights became difficult to enforce against local and state power.
Confidence. Historical facts: High; numerical score: Moderate. See the full review and sources below.
0515% of total
Individual Rights
Retreat from federal protection left Black civil rights exposed to segregation and coercion.
25/ 100
↓ 30 since the previous reviewAdds 3.75 points to the total · ↓ 30 since the previous review
Why this score?
Why it was scored this way. Retreat from federal protection left Black civil rights exposed to segregation and coercion.
Confidence. Historical facts: High; numerical score: Moderate. See the full review and sources below.
0610% of total
Federal and State Balance
Did federal and state governments keep meaningful authority within their roles?
45/ 100
↓ 10 since the previous reviewAdds 4.5 points to the total · ↓ 10 since the previous review
Why this score?
Why it was scored this way. Did federal and state governments keep meaningful authority within their roles?
Confidence. Historical facts: High; numerical score: Moderate. See the full review and sources below.
077.5% of total
Trust in Institutions
Failure to honor the Reconstruction settlement weakened the credibility of constitutional promises.
35/ 100
↓ 15 since the previous reviewAdds 2.63 points to the total · ↓ 15 since the previous review
Why this score?
Why it was scored this way. Failure to honor the Reconstruction settlement weakened the credibility of constitutional promises.
Confidence. Historical facts: High; numerical score: Moderate. See the full review and sources below.
0810% of total
Peaceful Politics
Did political competition remain mostly peaceful?
30/ 100
↓ 15 since the previous reviewAdds 3.0 points to the total · ↓ 15 since the previous review
Why this score?
Why it was scored this way. Did political competition remain mostly peaceful?
Confidence. Historical facts: High; numerical score: Moderate. See the full review and sources below.
Different questions
The clock does not predict major change or civil conflict
A different question
Major change to the system
Could the country's basic governing rules change? This is different from armed conflict.
This needs its own scoring guide. The clock score cannot answer it.
A different question
Organized political violence
Could political violence become organized and sustained? The clock is not a prediction of civil war.
This needs its own scoring guide. The clock score cannot answer it.
Why this matters
Why this moment matters
The period shows the gap that can develop between constitutional text and institutional enforcement.
Similar moments in history
Evidence review
Electoral settlement and withdrawal of federal troops · 1876–1877
- Evidence confidence
- High
- Score confidence
- Moderate
The disputed election, political settlement, withdrawal, and later suppression of Black political rights are well documented. Causal allocation among dimensions remains judgmental.
Findings
- The disputed 1876 presidential election was resolved through an electoral commission and political settlement.
- Federal troops were withdrawn from the South, weakening enforcement of Reconstruction governments and rights.
- Violence, intimidation, and discriminatory state systems increasingly defeated constitutional voting and equality guarantees in practice.
Evidence pointing the other way
National succession remained peaceful and the Reconstruction Amendments stayed in the Constitution, even as their enforcement collapsed.
Check the sources
Sources
These links support the facts used here. Their publishers did not create or approve the score.